The First Fantasy Campaign: Chance Cards

Dave Arneson describes the use of "chance cards" in JG 37 "The First Fantasy Campaign".  I suspect these had their roots in wargames by Avalon Hill and other companies, but I couldn't locate any specific examples.

A chance card was drawn for each game month, and the events worked into the campaign timeline.  Arneson mentions drawing the cards one game year in advance, in order "to allow for a logical progression of events."

Chance cards were only employed "after the 3rd year" of the original Blackmoor Campaign, and primarily involved the Outdoor Survival phase of the campaign.  They are presented in tabular form, reproduced below: 

01-02: Small Duchy of Ten Raid (2/3 Cavalry, 1/3 Mixed)

03-04: Large Duchy of Ten Raid (maximum once a year)

05-06: Migration and Travelers (maximum once a year)

07-08: Special (maximum once a year): Horror of the year - Judge's option!

09-10: Large Orc Uprising (Civil War) Report

11-14: Wandering Heroes

15-16: Wandering Superheroes

17-20: Mercenary Company (small)

21-22: Mercenary Company (large)

23-26: Small Bandit Attack

27-28: Large Bandit Attack

29-32: Small Tarnsmen Raid

33-34: Large Tarnsmen Raid

35-36: Caravan to Empire

37-39: Caravan ro Small Capital

40-41: Caravan to Large Capital

42-43: River/Coastal Convoy

44-47: Legend Lead

48-49: Large Viking Raid (maximum once a year)

50-52: Small Viking Raid

53-54: Dry Spell: Will convert sinking land to marshes

55-56: Wet Spell: Negates a Dry spell or similar magic

57-59: Draw Two Cards

60-61: Draw Three Cards

62-74: No Activity

75-77: Peasant Revolt

78-80: Small Nomad Raid

81-82: Large Nomad Raid (maximum once a year)

83-86: Earthquake hits - Roll for intensity

87-88: Army Revolt

89-92: Storm: Delay Trade by one month, movement reduced.

93-94: Crusaders Passing Through

95-96: New Wizard Arrives

97-98: Plague!

99-00: NPC(s): 1-3 turn Traitor

Arneson mentions that events such as the Great Peasant Revolt and the Duchy of Ten Raid originated through the use of chance cards.

 

In a similar vein, the Companion Set Rules (1984) by Frank Mentzer describe 1-4 "Dominion Events" to be selected or randomly determined at the beginning of each game year:

Table of "Natural Events" for a Dominion, from the D&D Companion Set Rules, by Frank Mentzer.

 

Table of "Unnatural Events" for a Dominon, from the D&D Companion Set Rules, by Frank Mentzer.

 

I'm not sure if Frank was thinking about Arneson's chance cards when he came up with these tables, although many of the events are similar.